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Economic and steel market outlook 2019-2020, fourth quarter
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Apparent steel consumption fell by 7.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2019, after a drop of 1.6% in the first quarter. The negative trend in steel demand is the result of the ongoing slump in EU’s manufacturing sector due to weakened exports and investment that has become more pronounced during the second quarter of this year. Leading indicators forecast a continuation of the downturn for the remainder of the year, with no rebound before the second quarter of 2020.
The current downslide of the manufacturing sector in the EU is not likely to bottom out soon: escalating trade wars between the US and several of its main trading partners and persistent uncertainty regarding Brexit have the potential to severely impact global trade conditions, lead to a further deterioration in business sentiment and curb investment growth. In this scenario, the EU steel sector would be severely impacted, also having to cope with growing import distortions as well as higher volatility as a result of the increase of safeguard measures’ quota both this year and next.
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Brussels, 10 September 2024 – The Draghi Report thoroughly identifies the bottlenecks to both the EU industry's decarbonisation and competitiveness. The proposed recommendations for energy-intensive industries, including on energy, trade, carbon leakage, financing and lead markets, should be integrated into the upcoming Clean Industrial Deal and implemented with concrete measures as a matter of urgency. Alignment across different policies is crucial, and should be accompanied by sector-specific initiatives to enable the transition of each industry including steel, asks the European Steel Association.
Brussels, 05 September 2024 – The latest developments in the steel sector and across critical value chains are worrying signs of a steady deterioration, endangering the survival and the transition of steelmakers and their key manufacturing customers in Europe, such as automotive. A Clean Industrial Deal including swift and radical measures in EU industrial, energy and trade policies, is the last chance to ensure Europe’s prosperity and shield European industry from cheap imports driven by third countries’ unfair trade practices, overcapacity and lower climate ambition, urges the European Steel Association.
Brussels, 25 July 2024 – Major indicators in the European steel market show a steeper-than-expected downward trend, further impacting the outlook for this year and the next. Poor demand conditions, driven by ongoing factors such as high energy prices, persistent inflation, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, are exacerbated by a manufacturing crisis affecting the largest steel-using sectors, including construction and automotive. According to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, apparent steel consumption is further deteriorating. After a slump (-3.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, its rebound for the full year has been revised downwards (to +1.4% from +3.2%), as well as for 2025 (+4.1% from +5.6%). Similarly, output in steel-using sectors, after a decline in the first quarter (-1.9%), is projected to experience a deeper-than-expected recession (-1.6% from -1%). A recovery is anticipated only in 2025 (+2.3%). Steel imports continue to show historically high shares (27%).
The European Steel Association (EUROFER)
172 Avenue de Cortenbergh
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Email: mail@eurofer.eu
Phone: +32 (0) 2 738 79 20
