Apparent steel consumption fell by 2.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019. The negative trend in steel demand is the result of the ongoing slump in EU’s manufacturing sector due to weakened exports and investment. Forward-looking indicators signal, at best, a low-level stabilisation later this year, but no rebound.

The manufacturing sector in the EU may have not seen the worst yet: a deepening escalation of the trade war between the US and several of its main trading partners and a no-deal Brexit would severely impact global trade conditions, trigger a further deterioration in business sentiment and lower investment growth. In that scenario, the EU steel sector would suffer badly because at the same time the risk of import distortions increases due to the expansion of the size of the safeguard measures’ quota both this year and next.