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Economic and steel market outlook 2020-2021, fourth quarter
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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage across Europe, with all steel-using sectors being affected. Apparent steel consumption in the EU fell (-25.5%) year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, after a drop (-12%) in the first quarter. This was the most severe drop in EU steel consumption ever recorded.
The exceptionally negative trend in steel demand seen in the second quarter of 2020 is – as widely expected – the result of the economic and industrial lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Industrial activity restarted over the third quarter – when government COVID measures were largely lifted. Figures for the period will likely show a considerable rebound in GDP as well in industrial production, compared to record lows observed in the second quarter. This brief recovery may now be at risk if there is a COVID-induced ‘double-dip’ recession.
The unprecedented nature and evolution of this crisis means uncertainty and volatility surrounding possible developments in the coming months is still high. The outlook for this year and for 2021 remains very uncertain, given that COVID-measures are now being reimposed across the EU.
Total output in steel-using sectors fell (-21.3%) in the second quarter of 2020 after falling (-6.5%) in the first quarter.
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Brussels, 27 November 2024 – The European steel industry is at a critical juncture, facing irreversible decline unless the EU and Member States take immediate action to secure its future and green transition. Despite repeated warnings from the sector, the EU leadership and governments have yet to implement decisive measures to preserve manufacturing and allow green investments across Europe. Recent massive production cuts and closure announcements by European steelmakers show that time has run out. A robust European Steel Action Plan under an EU Clean Industrial Deal cannot wait or manufacturing value chains across Europe will simply vanish, warns the European Steel Association.
Brussels, 12 November 2024 - Ahead of Commissioner-Designate Séjourné’s hearing in the European Parliament, European steel social partners, supported by cross-party MEPs, jointly call for an EU Steel Action Plan to restore steel’s competitiveness, and save its green transition as well as steelworkers’ jobs across Europe.
Brussels, 29 October 2024 – The European steel market faces an increasingly challenging outlook, driven by a combination of low steel demand, a downturn in steel-using sectors, and persistently high import shares. These factors, combined with a weak overall economic forecast, rising geopolitical tensions, and higher energy costs for the EU compared to other major economic regions, are further deepening the downward trend observed in recent quarters. According to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, apparent steel consumption will not recover in 2024 as previously projected (+1.4%) but is instead expected to experience another recession (-1.8%), although milder than in 2023 (-6%). Similarly, the outlook for steel-using sectors’ output has worsened for 2024 (-2.7%, down from -1.6%). Recovery projections for 2025 are also more modest for both apparent consumption (+3.8%) and steel-using sectors’ output (+1.6%). Steel imports share rose to 28% in the second quarter of 2024.
The European Steel Association (EUROFER)
172 Avenue de Cortenbergh
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Email: mail@eurofer.eu
Phone: +32 (0) 2 738 79 20
