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Economic and steel market outlook 2020-2021, fourth quarter
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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage across Europe, with all steel-using sectors being affected. Apparent steel consumption in the EU fell (-25.5%) year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, after a drop (-12%) in the first quarter. This was the most severe drop in EU steel consumption ever recorded.
The exceptionally negative trend in steel demand seen in the second quarter of 2020 is – as widely expected – the result of the economic and industrial lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Industrial activity restarted over the third quarter – when government COVID measures were largely lifted. Figures for the period will likely show a considerable rebound in GDP as well in industrial production, compared to record lows observed in the second quarter. This brief recovery may now be at risk if there is a COVID-induced ‘double-dip’ recession.
The unprecedented nature and evolution of this crisis means uncertainty and volatility surrounding possible developments in the coming months is still high. The outlook for this year and for 2021 remains very uncertain, given that COVID-measures are now being reimposed across the EU.
Total output in steel-using sectors fell (-21.3%) in the second quarter of 2020 after falling (-6.5%) in the first quarter.
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Brussels, 2 April 2025 - The latest data unveiled by the OECD in its meeting in Paris draw an extremely worrying picture, where global steel excess capacity is expected to grow from an estimated 602 million tonnes in 2024 to 721 million tonnes by 2027 – over five times the EU's steel production. The European steel industry - already severely hit by the spill-over effects of global overcapacity and the U.S. steel import tariffs - reiterates the crucial need for strict and effective EU post-safeguard measures to ensure its survival.
Brussels, 19 March 2025 – The Steel and Metals Action Plan, unveiled today by the European Commission, provides the right diagnosis to the existential challenges facing the European steel industry. Concrete measures need to follow swiftly to reverse the decline of the sector, re-establish a level playing field with global competitors, and incentivise investment and uptake of green steel in the market.
Brussels, 12 March 2025 – The imposition of a 25% blanket tariff by the United States' administration on all steel imports exacerbates an already dire market environment for the European steel industry and poses a genuine threat to its future. The sector expects the European Union to respond with an effective revision of the steel safeguard measures that will mitigate the impact of the U.S. tariffs and ensure the longevity of the industry in the long-term, says the European Steel Association.
The European Steel Association (EUROFER)
172 Avenue de Cortenbergh
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Email: mail@eurofer.eu
Phone: +32 (0) 2 738 79 20
