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Economic and steel market outlook 2021-2022, fourth quarter
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The positive trend seen in apparent steel consumption as well as in steel-using sectoral output continued over the second quarter of 2021, at a considerably higher pace than in the first quarter of 2021. This was driven by the ongoing recovery in demand from the industry sector, where output bounced back after the losses experienced during the pandemic.
At the same time, this is also due to the comparison with the very low output levels seen one year earlier. The second quarter of 2020 saw widespread lockdowns and stoppages to industrial activity that were implemented across the EU as a result of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the general economic and industrial recovery in the EU appears to be increasingly uneven and exposed to downside risks, mainly the ongoing, severe disruptions in the global supply chain (i.e. shortage of components and raw materials, skyrocketing energy prices, rising shipping costs, etc.), as well as the sluggish implementation of vaccination plans in some Member States and COVID-19 variants.
Recovery in steel-using industries and in steel demand is expected to continue through 2021 but at a moderate rate and subject to considerable uncertainty at least until the first quarter of 2022, when most of the current global supply chain disruptions are expected to disappear or to ease significantly.
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Brussels, 11 September 2025 – The lack of a solution for steel in the EU-U.S. trade negotiations, the ongoing unpredictability of the global geoeconomic situation, and persistently weak demand against an ever-growing global steel overcapacity are squeezing the European steel market. In 2025, the outlook points to stagnation, with potential recovery only in 2026 — conditional on improvements in the global economy and an easing of trade tensions. According to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, another recession both in apparent steel consumption (-0.2%, revised upwards from -0.9%) and in steel-using sectors (-0.7%, revised downwards from -0.5%) is confirmed for 2025. Growth prospects are now delayed at least to 2026, with projections of a rebound for both apparent steel consumption (+3.1%) and steel-using sectors (+1.8%). However, steel imports continue to hold historically high market shares (25%) in 2025.
Third quarter 2025 report. Data up to, and including, first quarter 2025
Brussels, 10 September 2025 – Reacting to today’s State of the Union Address delivered by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Axel Eggert, Director General of the European Steel Association (EUROFER) said: